U.S. Dist. Judge Ellen Huvelle made it clear yesterday she will be a strict traffic cop for the Justice Department's (DoJ) challenge to AT&T's takeover of T-Mobile.  The trial will start next Feb. 13, splitting the difference between AT&T, which wanted a January start, and DoJ, which wanted March.

Regardless of how the Justice Department's case comes out, however, one valuable lesson has already become clear.  This country is only one deal away, two at most, of seeing the emergence of a new-age telecommunications industrial trust with power not seen since the old Bell System was broken up.

"Special Access" is one of those fun telecom terms that makes no sense to those outside of telecom. Briefly, it's the rate that a regulated incumbent local exchange carrier (ILEC), like AT&T, charges for certain non-residential telecom services. As you can see, even my attempt to describe in one sentence without jargon failed, that's how complicated this is. However, like many very complicated things, Special Access is one of the important ingredients that goes into how much people pay for phone and broadband service. You can find a five minute video of me explaining Special Access and why everyone needs to care about it here.

Note:  Earlier today, the NoChokePoints Coalition released a study showing the economic benefits for cutting the rates that businesses pay for high-speed broadband connections, called “special access.”  The study is here.

So with 2010 finished and 2011 now thoroughly under way, it’s time to play Prognosticate Me! Mind you, anyone can predict “spectrum will remain a focus” and “USF reform will loom large.” The fun lies in trying to pick the surprises. So I have selected 3 potential “black swans” for 2011. The term comes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book about the high impact of low probability events.

The following statement is attributed to Harold Feld, legal director of Public Knowledge:

“We are pleased that the FCC is moving ahead with a targeted data request to find the facts from a very distorted special access market that is overcharging business customers by an estimated $10 billion. The nature of the request encourages us to believe that the FCC is closing in on the key issues, and will be able to propose needed changes to promote competition and lower prices sooner rather than later.  We note that while the request is voluntary at this point, the FCC has the power to compel full and honest responses. We expect the FCC will use that authority if it doesn’t receive the information it needs.”

If you are a regular reader of this blog, there is a good chance that you are the type of person who gets questions about choosing cell phones from family, friends, and when you go to cocktail parties.  People probably ask for your opinion about this phone or that, or the merits of one carrier vs. another.

In the next few weeks you are probably going to be getting new questions about networks, specifically about 3G vs. 4G.  If you really want to blow the mind of the person asking you the question, you can tell that it may not matter.

So now we’ve had National Broadband Plan Day!. And, despite undeniable flaws and places where the Plan Drafters wussed out/”avoided controversy,” The Plan looks pretty damn good, actually.

Let me stress that: Pretty . . . Damn . . . Good!

Background: The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is trying to figure out how to examine the market for some of the most popular telecom services used by big business – so-called “special access” services.

Public Knowledge (PK) late Feb. 24 called on the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to make certain that consumer interests are taken into account into as it examines the structure of a market that sells its services to big business.

If the rumors are true, the FCC may be about to take a big step towards embracing its goal of being data driven, and could open the door to a more competitive Internet Service Provider (ISP) market.

According to reports, the FCC is considering requiring big telecommunications companies to lease their infrastructure to smaller competitors. This, of course, is not a new idea. Back in the day, forcing phone companies to allow competitors to access their wires resulted in thousands of dial-up ISPs competing for business.